The Indus Waters Treaty, especially its rules on sharing rivers that cross the India Pakistan border, will not work again in its earlier shape, according to people familiar with the matter.
They said there is no sign that Pakistan has given up supporting terrorism, which was the main reason India suspended the treaty after the Pahalgam terror attack.
Background to the suspension
India placed the treaty in abeyance as part of several diplomatic and economic steps taken soon after The Resistance Front, which acts as a front for the Pakistan based Lashkar e Taiba, killed 26 civilians in Pahalgam in April 2025.
In response, India launched Operation Sindoor in May last year to hit terrorist infrastructure inside Pakistan.
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Treaty needs fresh negotiation
The people, who did not wish to be named, said clearly that the treaty in its present form “will not function again.”
They said the parts dealing with sharing rivers across the border need to be renegotiated, keeping in mind climate change, population shifts and the progress made in hydrological technology since the treaty was signed in the 1950s.
Link to ending support for terrorism
Any reconsideration of India’s decision to keep the treaty on hold, the people said, depends on Pakistan giving up its support for cross border terrorism. They stressed there is still no evidence that Pakistan has taken any real steps in that direction.
One official said, “The evidence that our agencies have, in terms of their activities just across the Line of Control, suggests no credible steps have been taken so far to control their activities.”
Pakistan accused of straining the treaty’s spirit
The people said Pakistan’s conduct, including its attempts to block almost every water management project India proposed on the shared rivers, has damaged the goodwill and friendly spirit on which the treaty was originally based.
India had agreed to give Pakistan 81 percent of the river waters, a lopsided share meant to help resolve issues smoothly between the two countries. But according to the people, this cooperation never really happened.
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Questioning Pakistan’s water usage claims
The officials rejected Pakistan’s attempts to build a “victim narrative” suggesting India wants to cut off its water supply. They pointed out that Pakistan has not managed or used its own share of water effectively.
Of the 140 million acre feet of water available every year in these rivers, Pakistan lets nearly 35 million acre feet flow straight into the sea, unused, which is more than India’s entire share.
India’s earlier attempts to renegotiate
Even before the treaty was suspended, India had formally asked Pakistan four times since 2023 to renegotiate the agreement. In its last letter, India said it was ready to meet Pakistan at any place Pakistan chose.
On May 8, 2025, Pakistan replied that it was willing to hear India’s views only at the level of the Indus Waters Commissioners. India, however, wanted the talks to happen directly between the two governments.
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Faster project work in Jammu and Kashmir
Since the treaty was suspended, India has picked up the pace on several water and power projects in Jammu and Kashmir, some of which had been stuck for decades because of Pakistan’s objections. Over six decades, only 3,300 megawatts of hydropower capacity had been built in Jammu and Kashmir. Another 3,500 megawatts is expected to be added in the coming years.
The Kiru and Pakal Dul hydroelectric projects are set to start operating this year, while the Kwar and Ratle projects are expected to be completed by 2028.
FAQS
1.What is the Indus Waters Treaty and why was it suspended?
The Indus Waters Treaty is a 1960 agreement between India and Pakistan on sharing river waters, signed with World Bank help. India put it on hold after the Pahalgam terror attack in April 2025.
2.Will India restart the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan?
Officials say the treaty cannot function again in its current form.
