Lionel Messi still has a chance to win the Golden Boot at the FIFA World Cup 2026, but the Argentina captain faces a difficult task. With only the final against Spain left to play, Messi must deliver a special performance to overtake France star Kylian Mbappe, who has already finished his tournament.

Lionel Messi needs a hat-trick to finish on top

Kylian Mbappé currently leads the Golden Boot race with 10 goals after scoring twice in France’s 4-3 defeat to England in the third-place playoff. Messi is second on the list with eight goals and has one match remaining.

To win the award outright, Messi must score a hat-trick in the final, taking his tally to 11 goals and moving past Mbappe. If he scores only twice, both players will finish with 10 goals, forcing FIFA to use tie-breakers to determine the winner.

The first tie-breaker is assists. If players are level on both goals and assists, the award is decided by the player who has played fewer minutes during the tournament.

Tie-breakers may favour Kylian Mbappé

Messi and Mbappe are currently level on four assists each, making the race even tighter. If Messi scores two goals in the final without registering another assist, the contest could come down to minutes played.

That scenario is likely to favour Mbappe, whose World Cup campaign ended before the final, leaving him with fewer minutes on the field than Messi.

As a result, Messi’s clearest path to the Golden Boot is to score three goals against Spain. Anything less could leave the award dependent on FIFA’s tie-breaking rules.

While the race for the tournament’s top scorer has added extra excitement to the final, Messi’s biggest target remains leading Argentina to another World Cup title. If he produces a match-winning display and scores a hat-trick, the 39-year-old could end the tournament by lifting the trophy and claiming the Golden Boot in one unforgettable night.