India is expected to receive below-average rainfall during the 2026 Southwest monsoon season, according to the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) latest forecast released on Friday. The weather agency has revised its earlier projection and now expects seasonal rainfall to be 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), down from the 92% estimate issued on April 13.
The updated outlook raises concerns across several parts of the country, particularly in rain-fed agricultural regions that depend heavily on monsoon rains.
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Most regions are likely to see below-normal rainfall
Presenting the revised forecast, IMD Director General Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said, “Quantitatively, the Southwest monsoon season rainfall over the country is likely to be 90% of the long period average… Below normal rainfall is most likely over the country.”
“Southwest monsoon, seasonal rainfall is most likely to be normal over Northeast India, roughly about 94 to 106% of the long-period average, and below normal over Central and South peninsula India, that is, less than 94% of the long-period average. And in Northwest India, it is roughly about less than 92% of the long-period average. The monsoon core zone, consisting mostly of rainfed agricultural areas in the country, is likely to be below normal – less than 94% of the long-period average…”
According to the IMD, Central India and the southern peninsular region are expected to receive less than 94% of their average seasonal rainfall. Northwest India may also record rainfall below normal levels, with precipitation projected to remain under 92% of the long-period average.
Particular attention is on the monsoon core zone, a vast belt of largely rain-fed agricultural land where seasonal rainfall plays a crucial role in farming activity.
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Northeast India expected to fare better
In contrast to the forecast for most parts of the country, Northeast India is likely to witness normal monsoon rainfall this season. The IMD estimates rainfall in the region to remain between 94% and 106% of the long-period average.
The Southwest monsoon remains a key driver of India’s agricultural output, water storage levels and broader economic activity, making seasonal rainfall forecasts closely watched across sectors.
Rain brings relief to Delhi-NCR
Even as concerns over the monsoon outlook persist, parts of Delhi-NCR received much-needed relief from scorching temperatures after rain and thunderstorms swept across the region on Thursday evening.
The IMD has forecast continued cloudy skies, intermittent rainfall, thunderstorms and gusty winds across Delhi, Noida, Ghaziabad, Gurugram and Faridabad until May 31. The ongoing pre-monsoon activity is expected to keep temperatures lower than those seen during the recent heatwave spell, providing temporary respite to residents.
